Load Advisor: Friday 11 September 2026
Overnight prices across all five mainland and Tasmanian regions are sitting in negative-to-near-zero territory right now, with the deepest trough forming between 10:00 and 15:00 AEST overnight forecast time — the single best NEM-wide load shifting window today is 10:00-15:00 AEST, covering the 00:00-05:00 UTC settlement period, when NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 all forecast negative RRPs simultaneously.
SA1 and TAS1 show the strongest savings, with SA1 predispatch reaching -$49.99/MWh around 12:00 AEST and troughing again near -$39/MWh through 13:00-15:00 AEST, saving up to $138/MWh versus this morning's peak of $95.94/MWh. TAS1 mirrors this closely, bottoming at -$42.28/MWh near 13:00 AEST for savings around $132-133/MWh. VIC1 follows the same pattern, with prices falling to -$40.58/MWh around 13:00 AEST and staying negative from roughly 12:00 through 15:00 AEST. NSW1 and QLD1 show shallower troughs (-$7.35/MWh and -$6.54/MWh respectively, both around 11:30-12:00 AEST) but still offer $93-104/MWh in savings versus peak. Weak overnight wind (0.1-1.8 potential across all regions) combined with minimal heating and zero cooling demand is driving this broad-based softness, not solar — that's still hours away.
Prices will climb sharply from 16:00 AEST as the evening ramp begins: NSW1 rises from -$3/MWh at 15:30 AEST to $92.89/MWh by 18:00 AEST, VIC1 and SA1 follow similar trajectories into the $85-99/MWh band by 18:00-19:00 AEST, and QLD1 firms toward $87-90/MWh through the same window. This evening peak, roughly 16:00-19:00 AEST, is the period to avoid for any shiftable load — it aligns with the current $84.54-96.99/MWh settlement prices reported at 06:30 AEST this morning, confirming the evening peak sits at similar or higher levels. A secondary softening reappears late afternoon in VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 (13:00-16:30 AEST showing near-zero or negative prices again), giving those three regions a second shifting opportunity before the evening ramp.
Recommendation: schedule flexible, interruptible load — EV charging, battery charging, industrial process loads, hot water systems — for the 10:00-15:00 AEST window NEM-wide, with SA1, TAS1 and VIC1 offering the deepest discounts. Avoid dispatch during 16:00-19:00 AEST across all regions. VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 operators can extend flexible load into the 15:00-16:30 AEST window for a second bite before prices recover ahead of the evening peak.