Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 13 September 2026
NSW demand sits at 7,277 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $56.80/MWh, down from the evening peak of $79.91/MWh recorded at 17:00 AEST when demand hit 7,482 MW. The overnight trough saw demand collapse to a low of 3,439 MW around 12:05 AEST, dragging prices deeply negative (-$10.50/MWh) for an extended stretch between 11:00 and 13:30 AEST as minimum demand conditions took hold — a pattern consistent with strong rooftop solar offsetting scheduled generation in the middle of the day.
The demand-price relationship today is tight and highly elastic. Every ramp above roughly 7,000 MW pushes price through $60-70/MWh, and the steepest morning ramp — from 3,674 MW at 11:00 AEST to 8,179 MW by 18:00 AEST — drove prices from negative territory to a session-high $79.91/MWh in under seven hours. Price responds almost linearly to demand once black coal (currently 4,675 MW) and gas peakers are dispatched to fill the gap left by falling solar output after the morning ramp. Battery output of 548 MW is providing meaningful support at the margin, and wind at 1,121 MW is holding a steady base contribution.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firmer pricing day ahead: forecast RRP climbs from $64/MWh at 07:00 AEST to a peak band of $91-95/MWh between 18:00 and 20:00 AEST, before easing to $76-84/MWh through the evening and overnight troughs turning negative again post-midnight. This mirrors today's pattern — a bathtub-shaped demand curve with a sharp morning ramp, a modest midday plateau around 7,300-8,500 MW, and an evening peak pushing toward 8,500 MW plus. Traders should expect the 17:00-20:00 AEST window to be the key price-risk period, consistent with tonight's forecast $91.93-95.20/MWh band.
No NSW-specific demand-side notices are in effect; the active AEMO interventions and minimum system load advisories are concentrated in SA, relating to voltage control directions and a forecast MSL1 event on 19 September. These do not directly constrain NSW dispatch today, though the SA voltage direction to Torrens Island (extending to 14:00 AEST 14 September) is a factor traders should monitor for its potential flow-on effect on interconnector flows and Victorian-NSW price coupling.