Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 11 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $96.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 7,129 MW, up from an overnight trough near 5,213 MW at 03:55 and well below yesterday's evening peak of 9,061 MW at 08:55 (18:55 AEST). The current interval shows demand rebuilding as the morning ramp gets underway, with price already firming roughly 5% in the last five minutes — evidence of how tightly NSW pricing tracks demand at this level of the load curve.
The overnight data confirms a strong demand-price relationship: as load fell from 8,627 MW near 07:30 AEST last night to sub-5,300 MW by early morning, prices collapsed from the $80-100/MWh band to sub-$25/MWh, briefly hitting $0/MWh at 15:35-15:40 AEST when demand was around 6,200-6,400 MW and wind output was supplying a larger share. That trough-to-peak swing of roughly 3,800 MW drove price compression of over $90/MWh, underlining that NSW pricing is highly elastic to load once demand drops below approximately 6,500 MW.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firm demand build through the morning, with forecast prices climbing from $57-76/MWh at 07:00-07:30 AEST to $89-98/MWh across the 08:00-11:30 AEST window as the system approaches typical late-morning peak load near 8,700-9,000 MW. Prices then ease into the early afternoon (forecast $75-88/MWh from 12:00-15:00 AEST) before a moderate evening step-up toward $70-79/MWh by 18:00 AEST — a materially flatter evening peak than yesterday's, consistent with milder demand given today's forecast max of 19.6°C and negligible heating or cooling load (heating demand index 8.1, cooling 0). Overnight tonight, forecast prices turn negative (down to -$7.35/MWh around 11:30 AEST target) as demand is expected to fall below 5,500 MW with wind and rooftop solar contribution likely to outpace load.
On the supply side, black coal is currently providing 5,226 MW (largest single source), with wind at 760 MW, hydro at 615 MW, battery discharge at 281 MW and solar recovering to 145 MW as dawn breaks — combined renewable penetration sits at 25.5% with carbon intensity at 0.654 tCO2/MWh. No NSW-specific demand-side market notices are in effect; the active AEMO interventions and directions relate to SA voltage support and are not expected to influence NSW pricing today. The NSW-VIC negative settlement residue constraint that triggered yesterday afternoon has since been cancelled, removing that as a distorting factor for interconnector flows into today's session.