Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 7 September 2026

NSW demand sits at 7,894 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up from an overnight trough below 4,900 MW, with spot price at $85.86/MWh — down from the $147.96/MWh peak hit at 18:00 AEST yesterday evening but still elevated against the sub-$10/MWh prices seen through the early hours. The overnight period shows textbook demand-price correlation: as load bottomed near 4,860-5,000 MW between 12:50-15:00 AEST, prices frequently printed at or below zero (as low as -$3.23/MWh), before climbing sharply alongside the morning ramp. Between 06:00 and 08:00 AEST demand jumped from 7,041 MW to 8,906 MW — a 1,865 MW swing in two hours — and price responded with a near-tripling from $46.45/MWh to a peak of $147.96/MWh, illustrating the steep marginal cost curve once black coal and gas peaking capacity are progressively dispatched.

The elevated pricing band through the 07:00-12:00 AEST window ($120-148/MWh) coincided with demand holding above 8,100 MW, before easing back to the $85-100/MWh range as demand eased through the afternoon towards 6,400-6,800 MW. Current generation mix shows black coal carrying 5,275 MW of the load, with wind contributing 1,174 MW and hydro 862 MW; renewable penetration sits at 32.75% with carbon intensity at 0.59 tCO2/MWh, both improving from the overnight low-demand period when renewables briefly exceeded 60% penetration.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a further demand build through this morning, with dispatch price forecasts showing $101-119/MWh through 07:30-10:30 AEST before easing toward $75-90/MWh across midday and into early afternoon, then softening further to the $60-65/MWh band by late afternoon. No NSW-specific reserve notices are currently active — the only live LOR1 condition today applies to VIC1 between 07:00-07:30 AEST — so today's NSW price path is being driven by underlying demand growth and generation stack costs rather than supply-side constraint. Traders should watch the 07:00-11:00 AEST window as the highest-price period of the day based on current forecasts, with demand likely to test yesterday's 8,900+ MW peak given similar morning conditions and today's cooler 12-17°C temperature band supporting continued heating load.