Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 10 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $109.10/MWh as demand reaches 8,274 MW at 06:30 AEST, tracking the tail of this morning's ramp. Prices have been highly demand-elastic overnight: as demand fell from 8,600 MW to a trough of 5,228 MW between 05:20 and 13:20 AEST, prices collapsed from the $60-120/MWh range down to near-zero, even printing $0.01/MWh at 13:20 AEST. The relationship reversed sharply once demand began climbing after 16:00 AEST (06:00 local), with prices lifting from $26-30/MWh at 7,053 MW to a peak of $122.86/MWh once demand cleared 9,400 MW around 18:00-18:35 AEST. That morning peak, spanning roughly 17:30-19:00 AEST with demand consistently above 9,300 MW, is today's highest-price window, averaging above $110/MWh.
Demand has since eased back from the 9,600 MW peak to the current 8,274 MW, and price has moderated in step, though the current $109.10/MWh print reflects a fresh uptick as evening demand builds again. AEMO's forecast for the day ahead shows a similar two-peak pattern: prices easing to $25-60/MWh through the overnight trough (targeting near-zero to single digits between 00:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow), before rebuilding sharply from 07:00 AEST (forecast $69/MWh) through to a sustained elevated band of $110-119/MWh from 08:00 AEST through the afternoon, with a further spike to $119/MWh forecast around 12:30 and 13:30 AEST. This confirms the classic dual-peak NSW winter/shoulder-season profile — morning ramp and afternoon-into-evening peak — both closely tracking underlying demand trajectory rather than supply-side shocks.
No demand-side market interventions are active in NSW today; the notices affecting the region relate to settlement residue constraints on the NSW-VIC interconnector (ceased 17:20 AEST yesterday) and a since-resolved credible contingency reclassification on the Bayswater-Mt Piper 500kV lines, neither of which is constraining current dispatch. Weather supports continued moderate demand: today's forecast maximum of 18.2°C with 50% cloud cover keeps heating and cooling loads modest, and the current generation mix — black coal at 5,280 MW, hydro at 915 MW, wind at 835 MW, battery discharge at 513 MW and solar at 113 MW — indicates the evening peak is being met without unusual scarcity pricing. Traders should note the AEMO forecast implies price risk concentrates in the 08:00-15:30 AEST window tomorrow, with demand-driven volatility easing materially overnight.