Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 12 September 2026

NSW demand sits at 6,548 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $42.45/MWh, down sharply from the $71-89/MWh range that prevailed through the preceding evening peak. The overnight trough saw demand bottom out near 3,926 MW around 13:10 AEST (03:10 local overnight), dragging prices down to the $0-25/MWh band, before demand climbed steadily from 04:35 AEST as the morning ramp began. Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today: each ~1,000 MW swing has moved prices by $40-60/MWh, and the tightest correlation shows up in the morning ramp, where demand rose from 4,782 MW to 8,356 MW between 04:50 and 08:50 AEST while prices lifted from $12.79/MWh to a session high of $90.49/MWh.

The historical trading pattern shows NSW demand peaking in the 8,000-8,350 MW band between 08:00 and 09:00 AEST, coinciding with prices holding in the $74-90/MWh range — the highest sustained pricing of the period. Demand then eases gradually through the day, falling to around 6,300-6,600 MW by early evening, with prices settling into a $65-89/MWh band supported by the evening demand plateau rather than a sharp peak. AEMO's forward price curve points to a second, more moderate lift tomorrow morning, with forecast prices climbing from negative territory overnight (-$18 to -$3/MWh in the 13:00-16:00 AEST window) to $74-80/MWh by 07:30-08:30 AEST, mirroring today's ramp shape.

Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 4,392 MW against total demand of 6,548 MW, with wind at 324 MW, battery output at 244 MW, and solar negligible at 95 MW given the early hour and near-zero solar potential currently recorded. Renewable penetration sits at 14.98% with carbon intensity at 0.746 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the low end of today's range as the overnight wind and rooftop solar contribution remains thin. No NSW-specific demand-side interventions are in effect; the active AEMO notices concern SA region voltage support and negative settlement residues on the VIC-SA and NSW-VIC interconnectors, which have limited direct bearing on today's NSW price trajectory beyond modest interconnector flow constraints.