Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 18 August 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $20.28/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well down from yesterday evening's peak of $57.76/MWh reached during the 07:20pm demand ramp. Overnight prices spent extended periods in negative territory, dropping as low as -$8.40/MWh around 03:15am AEST as demand fell below 950 MW and hydro/wind output exceeded local requirements. Demand currently tracks at 1,153 MW, climbing from an overnight low near 817 MW as the region moves into the morning ramp.

Generation mix is running at 382 MW hydro, 342 MW wind, and 123 MW gas OCGT, giving hydro and wind a combined 85% share of the current 847 MW output. Renewable penetration sits at 85.5%, consistent with the pattern seen through the past 24 hours where renewable share has ranged between 80% and 92% depending on wind availability and gas peaking support. Carbon intensity is 0.0943 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the lower end of Tasmania's typical range and well below NEM mainland averages, reflecting the hydro-wind base with gas filling short-term gaps.

Predispatch signals a firming trajectory through the morning: forecasts show $34/MWh by 8am AEST, rising sharply to a peak near $80.31/MWh around 11am AEST as demand builds and interconnector flows adjust, before easing back to the $13-20/MWh range through the afternoon and evening. Wind potential is forecast at just 3 m/s equivalent today (weak), with cloud cover at 78%, limiting any behind-the-meter solar contribution — hydro will likely need to cover more of the midday peak. Overnight low-price windows between 1am and 6am AEST tomorrow offer the best load-shifting opportunity, with forecast prices near $0/MWh and zero carbon intensity.

The key notice affecting interconnector flows is the Basslink technical limitation invoked at 7am AEST 18 August, with constraint set I-VT_000 restricting transfer capability on the Tasmania-Victoria link. This may reduce Tasmania's ability to export surplus hydro/wind generation to the mainland during periods of high renewable output, potentially contributing to the negative pricing seen overnight. No non-conformance or direction notices are currently active for TAS1 directly, though traders should monitor Basslink capacity given its influence on price volatility in both directions.