Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 18 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $64.05/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 8,843 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. Overnight prices were volatile, swinging from negative territory (-$1.38/MWh at 15:15 AEST yesterday) through to a spike of $99.01/MWh around 12:05 AEST, reflecting typical overnight demand trough and renewable output variability. The current price is broadly in line with the $60-75/MWh band that dominated evening trade yesterday, though well down from last night's peak near $87/MWh.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,576 MW, supplying the majority of NSW load, followed by wind at 1,129 MW, battery storage at 600 MW, hydro at 276 MW, solar at 96 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a marginal 24 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 27.3%, with carbon intensity at 0.639 tCO2/MWh — both indicators reflect the early-morning transition period, with renewable share up from the 20-24% range seen around midday yesterday but below the overnight peak of 51.3% renewables (0.428 tCO2/MWh) reached around 23:55 AEST when wind and low demand combined favourably. Weather data shows light wind (5.4 km/h) and minimal solar potential currently, with solar climbing through the day as cloud cover sits at 54% and clears to an average 20% for the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep afternoon price climb: from $64.05/MWh at 07:00 AEST, prices are forecast to rise through $78-88/MWh by 08:00-09:00 AEST as demand ramps, then peak at $94.64/MWh around 21:00 AEST (11:00 UTC) coinciding with the evening demand peak before easing back to the low $60s by mid-afternoon. Overnight tonight, forecast prices turn negative again, dropping to -$6.42/MWh around 13:30 AEST — a strong candidate window for flexible load scheduling, consistent with the identified low-price windows between 11:00-15:30 AEST showing savings up to $101/MWh versus peak.
Active notices relevant to NSW traders include an automated constraint set (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) invoked since early August to manage power system security in the Sydney region, affecting NSW1-QLD1 interconnector flows, and a completed outage restoration on the Liddell-Tomago 330kV line. No NSW-specific interventions or non-conformances are currently active, though SA remains under an active AEMO intervention event for voltage control with directions issued to Torrens Island generation — this has flow-on implications for interconnector constraints but no direct NSW dispatch impact at this stage.