Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 20 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $77.29/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking below the overnight peak of $97.63/MWh hit around 21:10 AEST last night but well above the sub-$20/MWh trough recorded in the early hours. Demand at 8,203 MW is climbing into the morning ramp from an overnight low near 6,600 MW. Prices have been volatile through the past 24 hours, swinging between roughly $13/MWh and $98/MWh as demand cycled through the evening peak, overnight minimum, and now the morning rise.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,631.68 MW, supplying the bulk of NSW load. Wind is contributing 919.24 MW, hydro 662.81 MW, battery output 172.69 MW, solar 65.18 MW (pre-dawn, minimal), and gas OCGT a small 45.51 MW, with gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at 24.27%, down from an overnight peak above 49% around 02:00-03:00 AEST when wind and hydro carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity is 0.665 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.441 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's increased share as solar has not yet ramped and demand is rising.
Predispatch forecasts show prices climbing through the morning, reaching $86.97/MWh by 18:00 UTC (04:00 AEST target... note forecast targets are in UTC, converting to AEST: 08:00-09:00 AEST window), with a further push to $95.07/MWh around 09:30 UTC target (19:30 AEST) and a midday peak near $91.84/MWh. Prices are expected to ease into the afternoon, dropping to the $57-66/MWh range by mid-to-late afternoon as demand tapers. Overnight tonight into Saturday, forecasts point to a sharp trough, with prices falling below $15/MWh between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST tomorrow, including a forecast low of $0.98/MWh around 05:00 AEST — consistent with the flagged low-price, low-carbon load-shifting windows between 03:30 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow morning.
Active notices relevant to NSW include an inter-regional transfer limit variation on the Kemps Creek–Sydney North No. 14 330kV line, which returned to service on 19 August after a planned outage window originally scheduled through 21 August — worth confirming with AEMO's outage scheduler if constraint N-KCSN_14 remains revoked. No new NSW-specific contingency events or interventions are active today; the current notices board is dominated by SA and VIC interconnector and voltage-control events (Tailem Bend–South East line, Hazelwood bus tie, Basslink technical limitation) which may have secondary effects on NSW–VIC and NSW–QLD interconnector flows during peak periods. Weather today is overcast (100% cloud cover currently, easing to ~49% average) with light wind (14.2 km/h), limiting solar and wind output through the morning and reinforcing coal's dominant role in the mix.