Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 23 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $71.40/MWh at 06:25 AEST, tracking below the overnight peak of $112.34/MWh recorded around 06:34 yesterday evening but well above the negative-to-single-digit troughs seen through the 10:00pm–4:30am overnight trough, where prices repeatedly fell to between -$2.07 and $5/MWh as demand dropped to a low of 5,441 MW. Demand has since climbed sharply through the morning ramp, up from that overnight low to 8,271 MW currently, pushing prices from the low $20s at 4:00am AEST through the $80s during the 6:00-10:00am block before easing back to the low $70s. This overnight-trough-to-morning-peak swing of over $110/MWh reflects the classic solar-driven midday price suppression giving way to evening/morning ramp tightness.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 4,882 MW, supplying the bulk of NSW load, with wind contributing 843 MW, hydro at 325 MW, battery output at 72 MW, solar at 87 MW (reflecting early morning/low-light conditions), and gas OCGT at a modest 29 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 21.28%, with carbon intensity at 0.6916 tCO2/MWh — both figures near the low end of the 24-hour range. Carbon intensity has climbed steadily from an overnight low of 0.3329 tCO2/MWh (62% renewables) around 1:00am to a midday peak above 0.70 tCO2/MWh as coal generation has scaled up to meet demand and both wind and solar output moderated through the day.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing further into the evening, with the 21:00-22:00 AEST window forecast at $84.79/MWh before falling to $57.17/MWh by 22:00, then dropping into single digits and negative territory overnight — a forecast low of -$2.01/MWh around 3:30am tomorrow. The next major ramp is forecast for 6:30-9:30am tomorrow, with prices projected to climb from $65.37/MWh to a peak of $109.98/MWh around 9:30am, consistent with today's pattern. Traders should note the identified low-price windows overnight (1:00am-6:00am) offer significant load-shifting value, with savings up to $111/MWh versus peak achievable in the 3:00-5:00am blocks, though the 5:00-6:00am window carries elevated risk given the sharp ramp that follows.
On market notices, NSW-specific items are largely transmission-related: the Vineyard-Sydney West No.29 330kV line returned to service on 21 August after a planned outage, the Lismore-Koolkhan 967 132kV line experienced a short-notice outage on 21 August invoking constraint N-KKLS_967, and the Directlk-N to Directlk-Q DC1 80kV line outage (originally scheduled to 24 August) was completed early on 21 August. No active AEMO interventions or directions are currently in force for NSW1; the ongoing intervention and non-conformance notices this week relate to SA and VIC voltage support issues at Torrens Island and Barker Inlet, with no direct NSW dispatch impact expected today.