Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 17 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $36.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well down from yesterday evening's peak above $89/MWh and consistent with an overnight trough that saw prices turn negative, bottoming at -$9.02/MWh around 13:20 AEST yesterday. Demand currently reads 1,119 MW, tracking below the prior evening's 1,390 MW peak. Overnight the region experienced a familiar pattern for Tasmania: strong hydro output pushed prices to near-zero or negative in low-demand periods, before a stronger climb into this morning's ramp, which briefly touched $89.26/MWh at 06:30 AEST as demand built.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 935.84 MW, supplemented by wind at 221.6 MW and gas (OCGT) at 124.41 MW. This puts renewable penetration at 90.29%, with carbon intensity at a low 0.0631 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-led profile. Carbon intensity has ranged between 0.058 and 0.126 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, tracking inversely with hydro dispatch and gas peaking support during the overnight low-price window.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing through the day: $51/MWh by 07:00 AEST, dropping to $25/MWh by 08:30 AEST, then falling further into negative territory overnight, with forecasts as low as -$6.89/MWh around 12:00 AEST tomorrow. Prices are expected to stay in the $9-11/MWh band through most of tomorrow's early morning hours, with a brief lift to $35-44/MWh around 18:00-19:00 AEST tomorrow evening. This trajectory reflects continued strong hydro availability against moderate demand, with several low-price windows identified overnight (00:30-02:30 AEST) offering flexible load opportunities at savings of $54-58/MWh versus peak pricing.
No Tasmania-specific market notices are currently active. Recent AEMO notices affecting the broader NEM relate to QLD and NSW interconnector outages and constraint variations, plus a standing MTPASA reserve notice flagging low reserve conditions in South Australia for 2027-28 — none of which directly affect TAS1 operations today. Weather conditions show cold, calm conditions (4.2°C, wind speed 7.3 km/h), with heating demand at 13.8 and minimal wind potential (0.6), suggesting hydro will continue carrying the bulk of generation through the day.