Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 16 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $53.30/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 1,275 MW as the region moves through the morning ramp. Prices have been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from a peak of $88.24/MWh during last evening's demand ramp down to negative pricing (-$9.96/MWh) through the overnight trough between 02:00 and 05:30 AEST, when demand fell below 900 MW. The current price sits well above the overnight lows but below yesterday evening's peak, reflecting typical morning demand build as load climbs from the 880 MW overnight base towards a forecast peak above 1,270 MW.
Generation is running at 1,036 MW hydro, 199 MW gas OCGT, and 68 MW wind, with hydro dominating supply as usual for Tasmania. Renewable penetration sits at 84.68%, and carbon intensity reads 0.0996 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with the region's typical profile, where hydro output moves with reservoir management and gas OCGT fills peaking and firming roles. Over the past 24 hours renewable penetration has ranged between roughly 76% and 89%, with carbon intensity correspondingly moving between 0.069 and 0.153 tCO2/MWh depending on gas dispatch levels.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price track through the morning peak, climbing to $82.38/MWh by 08:30 AEST and holding near $80/MWh into mid-morning before easing back through the day. Prices are then forecast to fall sharply from midday, dropping to single digits ($10.60–$10.90/MWh) for an extended window from roughly 14:30 through to 18:00 AEST as demand tapers and hydro/wind supply comfortably covers load. This creates a clear low-cost window for flexible load or charging strategies, consistent with the identified load-shifting opportunities in the 02:00–06:00 AEST band overnight, each offering savings of $69–72/MWh versus peak pricing.
No active market notices are specific to Tasmania today. The most recent TAS1-related notices were reclassifications of non-credible contingency events on transmission lines (Norwood-Scottsdale and Palmerston-Hadspen) due to lightning risk, both since cancelled as weather cleared. Current weather shows cold conditions (4.1°C, light 7.3 km/h wind) with minimal wind potential (0.6%) and no solar generation contribution overnight, reinforcing hydro's role in carrying the bulk of Tasmanian demand through today's trading session. Grid stress score sits elevated at 87.4, reflecting the wide overnight-to-peak price swing traders should watch for in dispatch bidding.