Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 16 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,549 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of 3,843 MW at 11:05 AEST yesterday, and spot price has climbed in step to $54.75/MWh. This morning's ramp shows textbook demand-price sensitivity: as load rose from 5,600 MW at 16:20 through to 6,229 MW at 16:35 (AEST equivalent, pre-dawn), price jumped from $38.36/MWh to $86.37/MWh — a 125% price increase on a 11% demand increase, confirming QLD1's supply curve steepens noticeably above 6,000 MW.
The evening peak on 16 August offers the clearest read for today's trajectory: demand peaked at 7,321 MW at 08:15 UTC (18:15 AEST) with price holding in the high $70s to low $80s/MWh, before easing back to $39-55/MWh as demand fell below 6,000 MW through the evening. That demand-price relationship is now repeating into this morning's ramp — with demand at 6,549 MW and climbing, the current $54.75/MWh print is likely to extend higher through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window as demand tracks toward the 7,000+ MW band where generation stacks have historically required higher-cost plant.
AEMO's forecast curve reinforces this: forecast RRP climbs from $37.47/MWh at 16:00 UTC (06:00 AEST) to a plateau of $76-80/MWh between 17:30 and 20:30 UTC (07:30-10:30 AEST), matching the demand ramp pattern already visible in yesterday's data. Prices are then forecast to ease back to the $38-40/MWh band from midday through the afternoon as demand recedes, before a modest evening uptick toward $40/MWh by 18:00 UTC (04:00 AEST tomorrow). Overnight, forecast RRP turns negative from 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) tomorrow through to 05:00 UTC, consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight troughs already seen (demand below 4,000 MW, prices as low as -$5/MWh).
No specific demand-side notices affect QLD1 today — active notices relate to interconnector transfer limits (NSW, SA) and a prior non-conformance event at WOOLGSF1 (143 MW, 13 August), not current-day constraints. Current generation mix shows black coal supplying 4,842 MW and wind 1,627 MW against 6,549 MW demand, with renewable penetration at 29.4% and carbon intensity at 0.618 tCO2/MWh — both metrics tracking toward the low-30s% and sub-0.55 tCO2/MWh typical of QLD1's morning wind contribution before solar ramps into the mix later in the day.