Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $66.65/MWh at 06:25 AEST, sitting mid-range within a volatile 24-hour band that spanned $17.56/MWh to $136.64/MWh. The region has settled into calmer territory after Friday evening's price spikes above $130/MWh during the 07:50-08:00 UTC peak (evening demand ramp), with prices easing back through the $50-90/MWh range overnight and into this morning. Demand currently sits at 1,144 MW, tracking within its typical winter band.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 983 MW (79% of the 1,223 MW total), with gas OCGT contributing 208 MW (17%) and wind adding a modest 32 MW (3%). This mix reflects Tasmania's characteristic reliance on hydro storage backed by gas peaking capacity, with wind playing a supplementary role given the region's low wind potential currently (0.1 out of scale, per today's weather data). Carbon intensity reads 0.1106 tCO2/MWh, near the upper end of its recent range — intensity has drifted up from lows of 0.074 tCO2/MWh recorded around 07:00 AEST yesterday to current levels as gas generation has picked up share overnight. Renewable penetration sits at 82.99%, down from a peak of 88.61% seen at 07:00 UTC yesterday, consistent with the inverse relationship between gas dispatch and renewable share.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further easing overnight, with prices falling to single digits and briefly negative between 04:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow (forecast lows of -$3.67/MWh), reflecting minimal demand and strong hydro availability. Prices then recover sharply from 06:30 AEST, climbing to a forecast plateau around $88.24/MWh through the 08:00-12:00 AEST window as morning demand builds. This creates a clear low-price window between 01:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow — flagged in load-shifting analysis as low-risk, saving up to $91/MWh versus peak — attractive for flexible load and battery charging strategies.
No active market notices specifically affect TAS1 today. Recent regional history shows two contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale and Palmerston-Hadspen 110kV lines due to lightning risk earlier this month, both since cancelled with normal network configuration restored. Broader NEM notices relate to interconnector transfer limits in NSW and SA, with no direct bearing on Tasmanian dispatch conditions today.