Regional Outlook — NSW1: Saturday 15 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $78.86/MWh at 20:25 AEST, easing back after this morning's peak that pushed above $109/MWh between 08:00-08:15 as demand climbed toward 10,008 MW. Prices have been range-bound through the afternoon and evening, holding close to a $66.53/MWh floor for extended stretches between 14:00 and 20:00, well down on the volatility seen 24 hours ago when the region touched $124-130/MWh during the Friday evening peak. Demand has eased to 7,595 MW as the region moves through the Sunday evening trough.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,088 MW, followed by wind at 691 MW and hydro at 615 MW. Solar contributes 116 MW as output tapers into the evening, gas OCGT sits at 32 MW, gas CCGT is offline, and batteries are contributing 17.6 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 21.95%, down from an overnight peak above 43% recorded around 00:00 AEST when wind and hydro output was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6857 tCO2/MWh, having climbed steadily from an overnight low of 0.5005 tCO2/MWh as coal's share of the mix increased through the day.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing further overnight, with the 22:00-06:00 window expected to trade between $23.99 and $58.32/MWh as demand falls away — the 00:00 AEST interval forecast at just $23.99/MWh. Prices are then forecast to rise through Monday morning, reaching $97.55/MWh by 08:00 and holding at that level through to midday before easing into the afternoon. Load-shifting windows have been flagged between 00:00-01:00 and 02:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow, with average prices as low as $33.27-42.93/MWh offering savings of $54-64/MWh versus peak periods.
Active AEMO notices affecting NSW include an inter-regional transfer limit variation following a short-notice outage of the Lismore-Lismore132 9U9 132kV line (constraint N-LSLS_9U8 invoked from 10:50 on 15 August), and an ongoing Directlink control unavailability notice invoking constraint I-CTRL_ISSUE_TE since 06:15 on 14 August. Both remain active and may affect interconnector flows on the NSW-QLD boundary. No non-conformance or intervention notices are currently active for the NSW region itself.