Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $68.84/MWh at 20:25 AEST, with demand at 5,751 MW and climbing after the region worked through its typical Sunday evening trough. The 06:00-08:00 AEST period today saw the sharpest demand-price coupling of the day: demand rose from 5,590 MW to 7,058 MW as the morning ramp kicked in, dragging prices from $50/MWh up to a peak of $95.65/MWh — roughly an 8:1 price-to-demand sensitivity ratio typical of a tightening supply stack once black coal and gas peaking units are dispatched to cover the gap left by overnight demand lows. Demand has since eased back from that mid-morning peak of ~7,000-7,050 MW, tracking down through the afternoon to a low near 5,250 MW around 16:00-17:00 AEST, with prices compressing to the $45-58/MWh band over the same window — a much flatter relationship, indicating the region was comfortably supplied by coal (5,071 MW), wind (1,363 MW) and a modest battery contribution (48 MW) without needing marginal peaking capacity.
The evening step-up now underway mirrors last night's pattern: demand at 5,751 MW is still well short of last night's 21:00-22:00 AEST peak near 6,200 MW, but the current price of $68.84/MWh already sits above where equivalent demand levels traded on the way up 24 hours ago, suggesting slightly tighter conditions into tonight's peak. AEMO's forecast has price rising to $74.25/MWh by 21:00 AEST before collapsing through the overnight trough — forecast prices turn negative from 22:00 AEST, bottoming near -$8.62/MWh around 04:00-04:30 AEST tomorrow as demand falls toward the 3,800-4,000 MW range seen in last night's minimum. This negative pricing window aligns with AEMO's own load-shifting guidance, which flags 01:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow as the lowest-cost load window, saving up to $100/MWh versus today's peak.
Tomorrow's forecast trajectory then repeats today's shape: prices recover through the 06:00-07:00 AEST ramp to $37.71/MWh and $68.82/MWh respectively, before the morning peak strengthens further to $91.16-91.82/MWh across 08:00-09:00 AEST — a higher peak than today's equivalent interval, consistent with Monday's more commercial demand profile against Sunday's lighter load. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.688 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing 21.46% of the mix, generation dominated by black coal (5,071 MW) and wind (1,363 MW); no active reserve notices or non-conformance events are affecting QLD supply adequacy today, and the only live QLD-relevant market notice concerns a prior Tarong network constraint with no current demand-side impact.