Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 14 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $102.20/MWh at 06:25 AEST, tracking above the overnight trough but well down from this morning's $155.57/MWh peak recorded at 17:50 UTC (07:50 AEST). Demand currently reads 1,151 MW, easing back from a mid-morning peak above 1,340 MW. Prices have been volatile through the past 24 hours, ranging from a low of $17.11/MWh overnight to the mid-$150s during the morning demand ramp, reflecting Tasmania's typical pattern of tight overnight troughs followed by sharp morning peaks.
The generation mix is heavily hydro-based: hydro is contributing 1,211 MW, gas OCGT 207 MW, and wind 40 MW in the latest interval. This puts renewable penetration at 85.8% and carbon intensity at 0.0923 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with Tasmania's typical profile, though intensity has crept up from an overnight low of 0.0466 tCO2/MWh as gas peaking capacity has been dispatched to cover the morning demand ramp. Wind output remains modest given near-zero wind potential in current weather conditions (2.5 km/h wind speed).
Predispatch forecasts point to easing prices through the remainder of the day: $95.03/MWh by 07:00, dropping to $70.14/MWh by 09:00, then falling sharply overnight into Sunday, with forecasts as low as $15.33-24.90/MWh between 03:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow as demand troughs. A modest rebound to the $80-90/MWh range is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak (07:30-10:30), though below today's peak levels. Load-shifting windows show the best opportunity between 05:30-06:30 AEST tomorrow, averaging $16.20/MWh — a $89.37/MWh saving versus today's peak.
One active notice is relevant to Tasmania's market linkages: AEMO has flagged that Murraylink output controls (the Victoria-South Australia interconnector) are unavailable until further notice, with constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML invoked from 06:10 AEST. While this directly affects the SA/VIC boundary rather than Basslink, traders should monitor for flow-on interconnector effects given the NEM's interconnected pricing. No active TAS1-specific network notices are currently in force; recent lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Tasmanian 110kV and 220kV network from early August have all been cancelled and reverted to non-credible status.