Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 14 August 2026

NSW spot price sits at $109.96/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 8,023 MW. This follows a pronounced morning peak where prices spiked to $182/MWh at 18:00 UTC (approximately 4am AEST trade) through to a high of $182 around the 08:00 UTC interval, before easing back through the $90-120/MWh band across the day. Overnight prices bottomed out near zero and briefly negative (-$2/MWh at 03:20 UTC) during the low-demand trough around 5,700-5,900 MW, reflecting the now-familiar overnight demand collapse in NSW. The 24-hour range of roughly -$2 to $182/MWh underscores continued morning peak volatility as demand ramps from overnight lows toward the 8am-9am shoulder.

Generation mix at the most recent interval is dominated by black coal at 5,948.51 MW, followed by hydro at 767.77 MW, wind at 495.44 MW, battery output at 99.42 MW, solar at 53.03 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a modest 39.92 MW, with gas CCGT offline at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 19.12%, well down from the 30-38% band achieved overnight between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST when wind and hydro carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7105 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low near 0.543 tCO2/MWh, tracking the increased reliance on black coal generation as solar output remains negligible given current cloud cover of 72% and low solar potential.

Predispatch forecasts show prices easing significantly overnight into Saturday, with forecast RRP dropping to the low $40s/MWh from 22:00 AEST through to 06:00 AEST Sunday, before a distinct morning ramp forecast to $71.75/MWh by 07:00 AEST and climbing toward $97-99/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window as demand builds. Prices are then forecast to soften across the afternoon, settling in the high $70s to low $80s/MWh by mid-afternoon and easing further to around $73-75/MWh into the evening of 15 August. Weather outlook for today shows mild conditions (10.5-16.4°C), moderate solar potential (5.5), and limited wind potential (3.7), suggesting a similar generation profile to today is likely to persist.

Active market notices affecting NSW include an inter-regional transfer limit variation from 06:10 AEST due to Murraylink control system unavailability in the SA region, which may influence interconnector flows on the Victoria-NSW boundary. A prior unplanned outage on the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line has been resolved, with the Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line also returning to service on 10 August following planned maintenance, removing associated transfer constraints. No active NSW-specific non-conformance or intervention notices are in effect at this time; traders should monitor the Murraylink situation for potential flow-on effects to NSW-VIC-SA interconnector pricing.