Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 14 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $93.83/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,070 MW and climbing as the region moves through the early morning ramp. This follows a pronounced overnight trough where demand bottomed near 3,845 MW around 11:20-11:35 AEST last night, dragging prices deeply negative (down to -$8.79/MWh) as minimum demand conditions met high wind output (1,118 MW currently) and battery discharge was unnecessary. The overnight period illustrates QLD1's price sensitivity: as demand fell below roughly 4,200 MW, prices collapsed into negative territory across nearly six hours, a pattern likely to repeat tonight given the forecast trajectory.
The demand-price relationship today is sharp and non-linear. Prices held below $10/MWh through the 4,000-5,000 MW demand band overnight, then re-engaged with black coal and gas peaking plant as demand crossed 5,800-6,000 MW around 06:00 AEST, causing a $50-165/MWh spike within 90 minutes as demand ramped through 5,800 to 7,300 MW. Peak demand today occurred around 08:00 AEST at 7,257 MW, coinciding with the session high of $164.83/MWh — a clear demand-driven peak tied to the morning industrial and commercial ramp rather than air-conditioning load, consistent with today's mild 11-21°C temperature range and low cooling demand. Demand has since eased back to the 5,400-6,100 MW band through the day, with prices settling in the $70-110/MWh range.
AEMO's forecast curve points to a further evening demand peak: forecast prices climb from $37.78/MWh at 06:00 AEST tomorrow (14 Aug 20:00 UTC reference) toward $90-92/MWh by 08:00-09:30 AEST as the morning ramp resumes, before easing to $63-77/MWh through the afternoon. Tonight's forecast mirrors last night's pattern closely — prices are expected to fall to -$2 to -$6/MWh from 23:00 AEST through to 05:00 AEST as demand drops toward the 3,900-4,200 MW overnight trough, driven by minimum demand conditions rather than any generation shortfall. Black coal (5,575 MW) continues to carry the bulk of current output, with wind (1,118 MW) and battery (313 MW) supplementing; renewable penetration sits at 20.1% and carbon intensity at 0.699 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval.
No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active today. The relevant market notices are network-related — an unavailable Murraylink control in SA and a historical Tarong 275kV circuit breaker outage — with no current QLD transmission constraints affecting today's demand-price relationship. Given the overnight trough typically produces negative pricing, load-shifting into the 00:30-05:00 AEST window offers the clearest arbitrage opportunity, with AEMO's own load window analysis flagging savings of $96-98/MWh versus peak for load shifted into these hours.