Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 13 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $83.54/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, easing back from an overnight peak of $134.57/MWh recorded around 05:35 AEST. Prices have been volatile through the morning shoulder, ranging from $50/MWh to $125/MWh as demand climbed from an overnight low near 950 MW to a current 1,163 MW. The 24-hour trend shows a gradual build from the low-$50s late Wednesday evening to a morning peak band of $100-125/MWh between 07:00 and 10:30 AEST, consistent with the typical Tasmanian demand ramp.
Generation is running at 970 MW hydro, 487 MW wind, and 124 MW gas OCGT, putting hydro at roughly 61% of the current 1,581 MW mix, wind at 31%, and gas covering the balance. Renewable penetration sits at 92.16% and carbon intensity is 0.051 tCO2/MWh, both improving through the morning as wind output firms. This continues Tasmania's pattern of maintaining renewable penetration above 90% for most of the past 24 hours, tracking between 0.048 and 0.072 tCO2/MWh depending on gas OCGT dispatch.
Predispatch signals a sharp price escalation ahead. Forecasts show prices easing to $14-25/MWh through the 01:30-04:00 AEST window overnight, reflecting strong low-demand, high-renewable conditions — this aligns with identified low-cost load-shift windows saving up to $261/MWh versus peak. However, from 06:30 AEST tomorrow prices are forecast to climb sharply, hitting $153/MWh by 07:00, $211/MWh by 09:30, and peaking near $269-275/MWh between 10:00 and 12:30 AEST. This suggests tightening supply-demand balance or interconnector constraints during the Saturday morning peak; traders with flexible load should note the overnight window offers the cheapest dispatch opportunity before this spike.
No active market notices specifically affect TAS1 today. Recent Tasmania-specific notices from early August relate to since-cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines — all reverted to non-credible status. Current active notices are concentrated in VIC1, QLD1, NSW1, and SA regions (non-conformance declarations, interconnector transfer limit variations, and a SA low reserve condition flagged for July-August 2028), none of which carry direct implications for Tasmanian dispatch today. Weather shows cool conditions (10.8°C, light 12.5 km/h winds) with heating demand at 7.2, and outlook suggests wind potential remains subdued (1.3) through today before a modest improvement into the weekend.