Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 13 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $94.83/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, tracking below the overnight peak of $121/MWh hit around 17:45 yesterday evening but well above the negative pricing seen in the early hours (troughs of -$10.50/MWh between 15:00-15:20 AEST as rooftop solar and wind pushed supply past demand). Demand currently reads 9,279 MW and climbing into the morning ramp, consistent with the steady overnight build from a low of 5,588 MW around 13:20 AEST. The last 24 hours show a classic pattern: negative-to-low pricing overnight through midday solar hours, then a steady climb into the evening peak as demand ramped past 10,000 MW.
Generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 6,832 MW, with hydro contributing 931 MW and batteries delivering a strong 841 MW — batteries are playing a significant role in this pre-dawn window. Wind adds 227 MW, gas OCGT is minimal at 45 MW, and solar is negligible at 1.4 MW given the early hour. Renewable penetration sits at 22.5%, well down from the overnight peak of 48.1% recorded around 14:00 AEST when wind and hydro output was strongest relative to demand. Carbon intensity is currently 0.681 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from an overnight low of 0.456 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's rising share as solar drops out and demand builds.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning and into midday. Prices are forecast to hold near $83-133/MWh through the 06:30-09:00 AEST window, then spike materially from 09:30 AEST (forecast $211/MWh) through to a forecast peak of $300/MWh at both 10:30 and 12:30 AEST. This aligns with today's weak solar outlook — average solar potential is just 27.1% and wind potential a low 0.8%, with cooler temperatures (8.3-17.4°C) driving heating demand. Expect prices to ease back into the $100-130/MWh band by mid-afternoon and evening, per the 14:00-18:00 AEST forecasts.
On notices: NSW-specific items are largely administrative — the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line outage constraint (invoked 10 August) and Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line have both returned to normal service, with the latter's constraint set now revoked. No active non-conformance or intervention notices are recorded for NSW1 today; recent non-conformance declarations relate to VIC1 (PLBESS1 battery) and QLD1 (WOOLGSF1 solar farm) units. Given the forecast price spike from 09:30 AEST, traders should note the load-shifting windows identified overnight (13:00-16:00 AEST prior day) offered savings up to $287/MWh versus peak — similar low-price windows are likely to reappear in tonight's negative pricing period as solar ramps up again around midday.