Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 13 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,948 MW at 06:35 AEST, up from an overnight trough of 3,564 MW around 12:05 AEST yesterday, with spot price at $93.21/MWh. The region has just come through a sharp morning ramp — demand climbed from 5,836 MW to over 7,600 MW between 04:00 and 08:00 AEST, dragging price from $0/MWh to a peak of $112.71/MWh at 05:45 AEST as the system moved off overnight negative pricing (as low as -$25/MWh) into the morning demand build. Price sensitivity is pronounced through this ramp: every 500-600 MW of demand growth added roughly $30-40/MWh, consistent with mid-merit and peaking gas plant progressively setting price as coal and hydro baseload is absorbed.
The forecast trajectory points to a much sharper move ahead. AEMO's forecast has price climbing from $84/MWh at 07:00 to $265.95/MWh by 10:30 AEST, easing to $153-265/MWh through the midday block before retreating to the $85-95/MWh band by mid-afternoon and evening. This mid-morning spike to the $260s coincides with peak commercial and industrial demand ramping against thinner solar output — cloud cover is forecast at just 5% today with reasonable solar potential (29.4%), but the modelled price path suggests tightening reserve margins are still expected to bite hard between 09:30 and 13:00 AEST. Traders should treat the 09:30-12:30 AEST window as the key exposure period today, with forecast prices 2-3x current levels.
Generation mix at 20:30 (prior evening reading) shows black coal carrying 5,678 MW of the roughly 7,200 MW total, wind at 770 MW, battery discharge at 477 MW and hydro at 166 MW — renewable penetration measured at 19.6% with carbon intensity at 0.70 tCO2/MWh, though renewable share was as high as 43% overnight when demand and price were low. No demand-side notices (load shedding, reserve warnings) are active for QLD today; the only regional non-conformance events (WOOLGSF1, STAN-1) relate to individual generating unit output rather than demand-side constraints. With clear skies supporting solar through midday, the forecast price spike appears driven more by underlying demand growth and unit availability than by weather-driven renewable shortfall.