Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $58.37/MWh at 06:25 AEST, tracking within the region's typical overnight-to-morning band after a volatile 24 hours that swung from -$6.62/MWh in the pre-dawn trough to $95.40/MWh at the 07:00 morning peak. Demand has climbed to 1,134 MW as the morning ramp builds, up from the overnight low near 1,000 MW. The pattern is classic Tasmanian: negative-to-low prices between 00:30 and 05:00 AEST as hydro and wind covered light overnight load, followed by a sharp climb through the 07:00-09:00 window as demand rose faster than dispatchable output could follow.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows hydro dominant at 766 MW, wind contributing 479 MW, and GAS_OCGT filling the balance at 123 MW. Renewable penetration reads 90.98%, keeping Tasmania at the top of the NEM for clean generation share. Carbon intensity is 0.0586 tCO2/MWh, continuing a steady improvement from the 0.09 tCO2/MWh peak recorded around 04:00 AEST — intensity tracks inversely with wind output and hydro dispatch, both of which have strengthened into the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trend through the day: prices are expected to ease slightly to the $27-35/MWh range between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST tomorrow before a sharp escalation from 06:30 AEST, with forecasts showing $70/MWh at 06:30 rising to a forecast peak of $159.39/MWh at 10:30 AEST. Prices are then expected to moderate through the afternoon, settling near $50-67/MWh by early evening. This trajectory reflects tightening reserve margins during the morning ramp — traders with flexible load should note the identified low-price windows overnight (01:00-05:30 AEST, averaging $19-38/MWh) as favourable for demand-shifting, with savings up to $140/MWh versus the forecast morning peak.
No active notices are specific to today's Tasmanian operations; recent regional entries relate to historical lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines, all since cancelled. The most recent live system notice was a resolved AGC Heart Beat service interruption on 12 August. Weather today shows overcast conditions (100% cloud cover), 10.7°C, light wind (9.8 km/h) and negligible solar potential — wind generation may soften through the day per the outlook, which forecasts wind potential falling to 2.7% by tomorrow, reinforcing hydro's role in meeting the evening peak.