Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $96.62/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile overnight range that swung from a peak of $183.64/MWh around 07:45 AEST yesterday evening down to a trough of $11.16/MWh forecast for early this morning. Demand has climbed to 9,082 MW and is rising through the morning ramp, consistent with the pattern of overnight troughs near 6,700-7,000 MW followed by a steep build into the 08:00-09:00 AEST peak. Prices have been choppy over the past 24 hours, oscillating between $23.95/MWh and $183.64/MWh as demand swings of over 3,000 MW moved through the evening and early morning periods.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,915 MW, providing the bulk of supply, followed by wind at 1,014 MW, hydro at 783 MW, battery output at 541 MW, solar at 81 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a modest 37 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 28.89%, in line with the middle of its 24-hour range — it peaked near 53% around 02:00 AEST overnight when demand was low and wind output strong, then dropped to a low of 23.6% around 19:30 AEST last night during the evening peak when coal generation dominated. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6247 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the upper end of its daily band (0.41-0.67 tCO2/MWh), reflecting the current higher coal share in the mix.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing through the morning trough, dropping to single digits around $11-20/MWh between 04:30-05:00 AEST before climbing sharply into the day. The forecast trajectory shows a strong ramp from $42.54/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $83.99/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then a sharp spike to $109.96-143.90/MWh across the 07:30-11:30 AEST window as morning demand peaks. Prices are forecast to ease back to the $78-89/MWh band through the afternoon. Weather conditions today show cool temperatures (9.9-18°C), light wind potential (average 2.3%), and moderate solar potential (23.3%), suggesting limited renewable output support during the morning peak — a factor likely contributing to the forecast price spike.
No NSW-specific active market notices are currently affecting supply reliability. The Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line outage notice and Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line outage have both been resolved, with the latter returning to service on 10 August. A constraint set (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) remains invoked on the NSW-QLD interconnector for power system security management, in place since early August. Traders should note the overnight-to-morning load window: five low-price intervals between 00:30-06:00 AEST offer savings of $94-124/MWh versus today's peak, with the 04:00-05:00 AEST window presenting the best combination of low price ($19.52/MWh) and low risk for flexible load scheduling.