Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $91.73/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,915 MW, tracking through the tail of this morning's ramp after overnight demand troughed near 4,030 MW at 02:05 AEST. The overnight low-price window saw RRP fall as low as $6.85/MWh with demand under 4,300 MW, confirming the region's tight demand-price coupling at these load levels — every 500-700 MW swing in the sub-5,000 MW overnight band moved price by $30-50/MWh as the last flexible units set the marginal rate.
The morning ramp shows the sharper end of this relationship: demand climbed from 4,660 MW at 04:00 AEST to 7,740 MW by 08:00 AEST, a 66% increase in four hours, and price responded by lifting from around $67/MWh to a peak near $109/MWh at 09:15 AEST before easing back into the $60-100/MWh band through midday as demand plateaued near 7,400-7,700 MW. Black coal is carrying 5,703 MW of the current 7,394 MW generation mix, with wind contributing 829 MW and battery output at 747 MW; solar is negligible at this pre-dawn interval, reinforcing why the morning ramp remains price-sensitive until daytime solar output builds.
AEMO's forecast curve points to a firmer evening than this morning: forecast RRP climbs from $71/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $115/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then pushes higher into the $109-130/MWh band across 09:00-12:00 AEST as demand is expected to sustain near the 7,400-7,700 MW range seen in today's late-morning actuals. This aligns with the historical evening peak pattern — yesterday's 20:45-20:55 AEST window saw prices spike to $294.39/MWh on demand near 6,960-6,995 MW, indicating today's evening peak (demand likely retracing toward 6,900-7,300 MW after the midday trough) carries meaningful upside price risk if generation availability tightens.
No demand-side constraints, load-shedding notices, or non-conformance declarations are active for QLD1 today. The most recent QLD-specific notice (7 August) flagged a 49 MW non-conformance on unit MPP_1, since resolved, and a reclassified contingency at Nebo substation remains in effect but has not materially affected transfer capability. Carbon intensity has eased to 0.689 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 21.3%, down from the overnight peak of 41.6% as coal generation reasserts its share through the morning ramp — traders should note the forecast negative pricing window between 23:00-06:00 AEST tonight (as low as -$25/MWh), consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight pattern repeating from last night.