Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 11 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $11.86/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well below the region's volatile overnight trajectory that saw two separate spikes to $320.16/MWh (07:00 and 11:35 AEST yesterday) and a stretch of negative pricing from roughly 16:30 to 19:20 AEST as demand troughed near 955-985 MW. Demand is currently building through the morning ramp at 1,175 MW, tracking the typical Tasmanian load shape. Overnight prices oscillated widely between -$0.10/MWh and $88/MWh across the evening peak, reflecting tight hydro-wind balancing rather than sustained scarcity.
Generation mix in the latest interval shows hydro leading at 395.83 MW, wind close behind at 381 MW, and gas OCGT contributing 124.32 MW to firm the balance — a combined output of roughly 901 MW against current demand of 1,175 MW. Renewable penetration reads 86.2%, up from 83.7% half an hour earlier, with carbon intensity at 0.0897 tCO2/MWh. This tracks within Tasmania's typical range; intensity peaked near 0.116 tCO2/MWh in the pre-dawn hours (04:00-04:30 AEST) when renewable share dipped to around 82%, and troughed at 0.0522-0.0515 tCO2/MWh mid-morning when renewables exceeded 92%.
Predispatch forecasts point to easing prices through the morning: $12.58/MWh at 07:00 AEST, dropping toward zero by 08:00-08:30 AEST, then a brief lift to $47-49/MWh around 08:30-10:00 AEST before falling to near-zero or negative again by 10:30-11:00 AEST. From midday, forecasts show a firmer band of $50/MWh persisting through the afternoon (12:00-16:00 AEST) before easing to $28.83/MWh by 17:00 AEST and $15-16/MWh into the evening. Weather supports this profile — cool conditions (5.2-13.3°C), light wind potential (3.0%) and modest solar potential (3.4%) suggest limited renewable variability today, with hydro and wind carrying the bulk of supply.
No active market notices are specific to Tasmania today; recent TAS1 entries relate to lightning-related contingency reclassifications on regional 110kV and 220kV lines (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton) from early August, all since cancelled. The most consequential live notice is the MT PASA reserve notice flagging low reserve conditions in South Australia for July 2028 — not a direct Tasmania constraint, but relevant for traders tracking interconnector flows via Basslink given SA's longer-term adequacy signal.