Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 11 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $130.54/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the $80-90/MWh band that held through most of yesterday evening and well above the sub-$50/MWh trough seen overnight when demand dropped below 6,000 MW. Demand has climbed to 9,183 MW as the morning ramp builds, and the price trajectory over the past two hours shows a steady climb from $90/MWh at 05:55 to current levels, consistent with tightening supply into the morning peak.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 6,291 MW, with wind contributing 950 MW, hydro at 623 MW, battery output at 506 MW, solar at 105 MW, and gas OCGT a minor 39 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 25.65%, down from an overnight peak above 59% around 02:00 AEST when wind and hydro dominated a low-demand system. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.653 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship with renewable share seen across the past 24 hours — intensity bottomed near 0.357 tCO2/MWh overnight and has been climbing since sunrise as coal generation fills the demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued firmness through the morning, with prices expected to hold near $97-99/MWh from 08:00 through midday before easing into the $60-85/MWh range across the afternoon. Overnight tonight sees prices forecast to fall through zero between 02:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow, with several intervals forecast negative — consistent with the identified low-price load-shifting windows flagging near-zero or negative pricing between 01:00-05:00 AEST for flexible load operators.
On notices, an active constraint (N-BWSW_32) remains invoked following the unplanned outage of the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line, affecting NSW1-QLD1 and VIC1-NSW1 interconnector flows — traders should watch for continued impact on interconnector limits. The Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line has returned to service as of 10 August, releasing its associated constraint set. No new non-conformance or intervention notices are active for NSW today; the SA reserve notice from MTPASA relates to 2027-28 reliability outlooks and has no immediate NSW market impact.