Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 11 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $190.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,853 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This is the sharpest price response of the past 24 hours: the preceding five-minute interval was $121.02/MWh at 6,760 MW, and the interval before that jumped to $140.02/MWh — a clear sign the region is now on the steep part of the supply curve as generators re-commit for the day and black coal (5,917 MW) carries the bulk of load with limited renewable support. Solar output is negligible at this hour (0.4 MW) and wind is contributing just 134 MW, leaving battery (329 MW) and hydro (247 MW) as the only fast-response buffers against the demand ramp.
The demand-price relationship overnight was pronounced: as demand fell from a prior-day evening peak near 7,300 MW down to an overnight trough of ~3,520 MW (03:00 AEST), prices collapsed from the $80s down into negative territory (-$8 to -$11/MWh) for several hours between 01:00 and 05:00 AEST. That inverse relationship is now reversing sharply as morning demand rebuilds — every ~100 MW of demand growth through the 05:30-07:00 AEST window has been accompanied by price steps of $10-40/MWh, indicating thin reserve margins and tightening marginal capacity at current output levels.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming but moderating price profile through the day: 21:00 AEST forecast at $107.73/MWh, easing to the $85-94/MWh band through the evening peak window (22:00-08:00 AEST forecast horizon), before easing further into the $55-70/MWh range across the afternoon as solar generation should lift and demand eases from its morning peak. Grid stress scoring sits elevated at 68.6, consistent with the current tight demand-supply balance, while price stability scores at just 18.9 — reflecting the volatility already seen between overnight negative pricing and this morning's $190.99/MWh print.
No QLD-specific demand-side notices are in force today; the only active QLD market notice relates to a prior non-conformance event (MPP_1, 7 August) and a network transfer limit variation, neither of which is materially constraining supply into this morning's ramp. The primary driver of today's price outlook remains the demand trajectory itself — with cool overnight temperatures (9.6°C, heating demand elevated at 8.4) supporting a firm morning peak, and improving solar potential (15% average today, rising to 22% tomorrow) expected to soften midday pricing as the generation mix shifts.