Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 10 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $81.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from a low of $5.33/MWh around 14:00 to a peak of $146.55/MWh during a brief 13:10 spike. Demand is climbing through the morning ramp, up from a trough near 991 MW around midnight to 1,251.9 MW currently, consistent with typical Tuesday morning load build. Prices have been volatile through the 30-40 $/MWh range overnight before lifting into the $70-90/MWh band as demand picked up from 06:00 AEST.
Generation mix is hydro-dominated: hydro is contributing 1,097.7 MW, wind 254.26 MW, and gas OCGT 124.89 MW, putting hydro at roughly 74% of total output. Renewable penetration sits at 91.54%, among the highest readings in recent days, and carbon intensity has fallen to 0.055 tCO2/MWh, down from an overnight range of 0.08-0.11 tCO2/MWh. The improvement tracks a modest wind contribution alongside strong hydro dispatch — wind potential remains weak today at just 0.1 (out of 100), so hydro is carrying most of the renewable share.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp bifurcation today. Prices are expected to collapse into negative territory overnight, with troughs of -$0.05/MWh around 13:30 UTC (23:30 AEST) and single digits through the early hours, reflecting low overnight demand and ample hydro/wind availability. However, forecasts show a dramatic spike to $320.04/MWh sustained from roughly 16:00-18:00 UTC (02:00-04:00 AEST Wednesday), an unusually high and prolonged elevated-price window worth flagging for dispatch planning. Traders with flexible load should note the identified low-price windows overnight (02:00-07:00 AEST), with average prices as low as $9.40/MWh and savings up to $320/MWh versus peak — genuine load-shifting opportunities given the near-zero carbon intensity during these hours.
On notices, there's nothing currently active specific to Tasmania beyond historical contingency reclassifications from early August (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town lines), all since cancelled. The most recent live notices concern NSW transmission (Liddell-Tomago line restored to service) and SA intervention events, none of which materially affect TAS1 dispatch today. Weather remains cool and still — 5.9°C, minimal wind (3.8 km/h) — reinforcing the low wind-potential outlook and hydro's dominant role in today's mix.