Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 10 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $92.80/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from a low of $10.27/MWh around 15:05 AEST yesterday afternoon to highs above $109/MWh during the morning demand ramp. Demand currently reads 8,994 MW, well down from yesterday's evening peak above 11,600 MW. The past 24 hours show a classic daily pattern: prices compressed into the $30-50/MWh band overnight (00:00-05:00 AEST) as demand troughed near 8,000 MW, then spiked into the $90-110/MWh range through the 07:00-11:00 AEST block as demand climbed past 11,000 MW.
Generation mix at the latest interval (20:30 UTC snapshot) totals 8,754 MW: black coal leads at 5,593 MW (63.9%), followed by wind at 1,672 MW (19.1%), hydro at 930 MW (10.6%), battery output at 500 MW (5.7%), gas OCGT contributing a marginal 41 MW, solar at 18 MW (reflecting the overnight/pre-dawn window), and gas CCGT offline at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 35.64%, consistent with the day's range of roughly 30-44%, which peaked near 44% around 08:00 AEST when solar output was strongest. Carbon intensity reads 0.5653 tCO2/MWh, tracking within the day's 0.49-0.62 tCO2/MWh band — intensity troughs align with higher renewable penetration windows in the late morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to easing prices through the evening, with forecast RRP falling from $84.79/MWh at 07:00 AEST down to the $70/MWh range by 09:00-10:00 AEST, before dropping sharply overnight — troughing near $0/MWh around 13:00-13:30 AEST tomorrow (overnight low-demand period) and even briefly negative at -$0.05/MWh. Prices then rebound through tomorrow's morning peak, forecast to reach $80-89/MWh by 17:30-22:00 AEST as demand ramps again. This overnight trough presents clear load-shifting opportunity, with identified low-risk windows between 11:00-16:00 AEST tomorrow offering savings of $70-89/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, the Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line returned to service at 14:10 AEST yesterday after a planned outage, with the associated constraint set N-LDTM_82 revoked — this restores normal transfer capability in the Hunter region. Separately, an unplanned outage of the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line occurred at 05:31 AEST yesterday, triggering constraint set N-BWSW_32, which affects interconnector flows on NSW1-QLD1 and VIC1-NSW1 and remains active. Traders should monitor this constraint for potential impacts on interconnector-driven price volatility given its interaction with cross-border flows.