Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 10 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 7,083 MW as of 6:30am AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of 4,758 MW recorded around 2:20pm AEST yesterday, with spot price at $87.73/MWh tracking the current morning ramp. The data shows tight demand-price coupling through the evening peak: as demand climbed from 6,584 MW to a period high of 8,072 MW between 6:00am and 6:35am AEST (in market time terms, the 16:00-18:35 window), prices rose in step from $84.50/MWh to peaks above $109/MWh, with several 5-minute intervals breaching $100/MWh as demand pushed past 7,900 MW. This confirms QLD's price curve steepens materially once demand crosses roughly the 7,500 MW threshold.
The forecast trajectory points to a stronger demand and price outlook through today's morning and midday trading. AEMO's forecast RRP climbs from $65.55/MWh at 7:00am AEST to $87.73/MWh by 8:30am AEST, then holds elevated between $84-92/MWh through to midday, with a secondary evening peak forecast at $91.73/MWh around 9:30-10:00am. This aligns with the historical pattern from the prior 24 hours, where the highest prices ($105-110/MWh) coincided with demand above 7,900 MW during the 6:00-9:00am AEST window. Traders should expect similar dynamics today given comparable weather conditions — current temperature is 11.7°C with heating demand at 6.3 (moderate) and negligible wind potential (3.4%), limiting renewable offset during the morning ramp.
Overnight, demand troughs below 5,000 MW coincided with negative pricing, including a run of prices between -$2.50/MWh and -$8.07/MWh from 2:20pm through to 5:35pm AEST (market time), driven by low demand combined with wind and rooftop solar output. Forecast RRP data confirms this pattern will likely repeat tonight, with prices projected to fall to -$7.34/MWh to -$8.07/MWh between 11:00am and 2:30pm AEST tomorrow before recovering. On the supply side, generation mix at the last interval shows black coal supplying 5,646 MW (the largest share), with wind at 810 MW, battery discharge at 749 MW and gas OCGT at 272 MW — batteries are actively supporting the current morning peak. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active today; the relevant market notices relate to NSW transmission line outages (Bayswater-Sydney West, Liddell-Tomago) affecting interconnector flows rather than direct QLD demand-side events.