Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 9 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $63.24/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,229 MW. Prices have swung sharply over the past 24 hours — from near-zero and even negative overnight troughs ($-0.11/MWh around 06:30 AEST yesterday) to a morning peak plateau of $88.24/MWh sustained through much of the 18:00-20:00 UTC window (04:00-06:00 AEST), briefly spiking above $115/MWh around 21:35 UTC (07:35 AEST) as demand climbed past 1,340 MW. The current price represents a pullback from that morning peak as demand has eased through the evening ramp.
Generation mix is hydro-dominated: 1,071 MW of hydro (84% of the 1,261 MW total), 172 MW from gas OCGT (14%), and 18 MW wind (1%). Renewable penetration sits at 86.35%, consistent with the pattern seen through the day, which ranged from a low of 85.4% overnight to a high of 91.5% around midday when hydro output ran hardest against lighter demand. Carbon intensity is 0.0887 tCO2/MWh, tracking in the middle of today's 0.055-0.107 tCO2/MWh range — inversely correlated with renewable share as gas peaking capacity fills the gap during demand peaks.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile overnight session ahead. Prices are expected to firm to $88.48/MWh by 08:00 AEST before easing, then collapse to a low of $11.76/MWh around 12:30 AEST as overnight demand troughs and hydro covers load comfortably. A sharp reversal is forecast from 18:00 AEST, with prices climbing back to $96.75-102.51/MWh through the 19:00-20:30 AEST window as morning demand builds again — mirroring today's pattern. Load-shifting windows flagged for tomorrow's low-price trough (02:30-07:00 AEST, averaging $13-15/MWh) offer savings of $87-133/MWh versus peak pricing for flexible loads.
No active market notices are specific to Tasmania today; the most recent TAS1-related notices concern lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines from 2-3 August, all since cancelled. Current active notices affecting the broader NEM include an unplanned Bayswater-Sydney West 330kV line outage in NSW (invoking constraint N-BWSW_32 from 05:31 AEST) and the cancellation of SA's AEMO intervention event effective 04:00 AEST today — neither directly constrains Tasmanian flows via Basslink at this stage.