Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 9 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,598 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $71.77/MWh, up from an overnight low of 3,857 MW and negative pricing (-$1.31/MWh) around 11:05 AEST. That range — roughly 3,800 MW to 7,450 MW over the past 24 hours — illustrates the region's steep demand-price curve: every 500-1,000 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp has pushed prices up $15-25/MWh in lockstep, peaking near $84/MWh at 08:05-08:35 AEST when demand hit its overnight-period high of 7,467 MW.
The demand trajectory today points to a stronger and more prolonged peak than yesterday. Forecast RRPs escalate sharply from $71.68/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $93.21/MWh by 07:30 AEST, then to $102.55-109.54/MWh through the 08:00-09:30 AEST window, with the peak forecast of $109.54/MWh at 09:30 AEST. This mirrors a classic winter morning demand build as heating load (current heating demand index 2.1, temperature 15.9°C) combines with commercial ramp-up. Demand is currently climbing through the 6,500-7,000 MW band and, based on the forecast price shape, likely tracks toward 7,500-8,000 MW before the late-morning easing that historical data shows from 11:00 AEST onward, when demand fell back to 6,900 MW and price eased to $71.68/MWh.
Price sensitivity is asymmetric across the day: overnight, demand troughs below 4,200 MW correspond with prices collapsing to single digits or negative, as baseload generation (5,395 MW black coal, largely inflexible) outstrips minimum demand. Through the day, forecast prices ease progressively from the morning peak — $84.50/MWh by 11:30 AEST, dropping to $57-63/MWh range through the afternoon (13:00-17:00 AEST window) before a modest evening uptick to $61.72/MWh by 18:00 AEST as demand rebuilds toward the evening peak. This afternoon trough offers a lower-cost window, consistent with the identified load-shifting opportunities in the 02:00-06:30 AEST band saving $40-55/MWh versus peak pricing.
On the supply side, an active inter-regional transfer limit variation from an unplanned 06:30 AEST outage on the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line in NSW has invoked constraint set N-BWSW_32, affecting the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector. This reduces import/export flexibility between regions during today's peak-demand window, meaning Queensland's price response to its own demand growth will rely more heavily on in-region generation (currently 5,395 MW black coal, 1,272 MW wind, 175 MW battery) with less interconnector support to dampen price spikes than under normal transfer limits.