Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 28 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $71.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking below the past 24-hour average of roughly $68-70/MWh but well down from last evening's demand-driven peak of $134.85/MWh recorded around 07:30 AEST yesterday. Total demand at the current interval is 9,112 MW, mid-range for the period. Overnight prices fell into negative and near-zero territory between 03:00 and 05:30 AEST (as low as $0.01/MWh), reflecting the now-familiar overnight demand trough combined with wind output, before climbing back through the morning ramp.
Generation mix shows black coal supplying 5,845 MW, the dominant source, with wind contributing 1,920 MW, hydro at 490 MW, batteries at 229 MW, solar at 95 MW, and gas OCGT a marginal 37 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 31.74%, consistent with typical early-evening levels once solar has dropped away. Carbon intensity reads 0.5997 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.382 tCO2/MWh around 04:30 AEST when renewable penetration peaked near 56.5%. This intensity swing across the day — roughly 0.38 to 0.65 tCO2/MWh — reflects the diurnal pattern of solar and wind availability against coal baseload.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming overnight trough, with prices tipped to fall to near zero or slightly negative between 00:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$1.17/MWh at 03:30 AEST), before a sharp morning ramp lifts prices to $109-125/MWh between 08:00 and 10:30 AEST as demand builds. Prices then ease through the afternoon, settling around $84-89/MWh into the evening peak window. Five low-cost load windows have been flagged overnight, each offering savings of approximately $125/MWh versus peak pricing with zero carbon intensity forecast, relevant for shiftable industrial load.
On notices, AEMO has active automated constraint sets (CA_SYDS_597B5710) managing power system security on the Victorian interconnector, invoked from 01:30 AEST and still in force, which may affect NSW-VIC transfer capability. A prior non-credible contingency reclassification for Upper Tumut Units 1-4 in NSW has been cancelled as of 28 July, removing that constraint consideration. No NSW-specific reserve shortfalls (LOR1/LOR2) are currently declared, though SA continues to carry forecast LOR1 conditions for tomorrow's morning and evening periods, which could indirectly affect interconnector flows and NSW pricing during those windows.