Commodity Demand — SA1: Saturday 18 July 2026
South Australian demand sits at 1,439 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $49.81/MWh — a sharp pullback from the overnight peak of $208.07/MWh recorded at 07:45 AEST yesterday evening (21:45 UTC) when demand hit 1,623 MW. Wind generation of 1,458 MW is comfortably covering current load, pushing the renewable share to 87.5% and carbon intensity down to 0.076 tCO2/MWh, the cleanest interval of the past 24 hours. Gas plant (OCGT 149 MW, CCGT 60 MW) remains online but is running well below capacity, indicating thermal units are largely following load rather than setting price at this demand level.
The demand-price relationship over the past day shows clear sensitivity above the 1,600 MW threshold: every push past that mark during the evening peak (17:35-22:30 UTC on 17 July) coincided with prices spiking into the $130-208/MWh range as wind output was lower and gas/interconnector flows tightened. Once demand fell below 1,000 MW overnight, prices collapsed to the $30-70/MWh band, bottoming near $1.20/MWh briefly at 04:05 UTC (13:05 AEST) as wind generation dominated a low-load period. This morning's ramp from 450 MW at 04:00 UTC (13:30 AEST) up to 1,895 MW by 08:55 UTC (18:25 AEST) tracked a corresponding price climb from $52/MWh to $130/MWh, confirming demand as the primary short-term price driver in a wind-heavy SA market.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the remainder of today points to a moderate evening peak: forecast RRP holds in the $40-77/MWh range through the next few hours before easing toward $45-49/MWh overnight, then climbing again with tomorrow's morning ramp — forecast prices reach $138/MWh by 08:00 AEST tomorrow as demand rebuilds. Today's identified low-price windows (02:00-03:00, 03:00-04:00, 04:00-05:00, 05:30-06:30 AEST) all sit in the $40-49/MWh range with zero carbon intensity, offering the best load-shifting opportunities, while the 16:30-18:00 AEST window offers the largest saving at $32/MWh average, over $100/MWh below peak-