Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 15 July 2026
South Australian demand sits at 1,663 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $117.24/MWh — easing from an early-morning peak of $2,057 MW / $150.32/MWh at 18:35 UTC (04:05 AEST) and a secondary evening peak of 2,099 MW that pushed prices to $170.44/MWh around 19:55 UTC (05:25 AEST). Overnight demand troughed at just 680 MW near 04:00 UTC (14:30 AEST equivalent low-load window), when prices briefly fell to $41.99/MWh. The current 06:30 AEST reading of 1,663 MW sits mid-range on today's demand curve, with price tracking demand closely through the morning ramp.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today. Each ~300-400 MW swing in demand has been shifting price by $50-90/MWh across the observed range, consistent with a steep short-run supply curve in SA driven by gas-fired marginal generation. Wind output is currently strong at 847 MW, supplying the bulk of the 55.2% renewable share and holding carbon intensity to 0.262 tCO2/MWh, but with zero solar generation at this pre-dawn interval, gas OCGT (421 MW) and CCGT (296 MW) are covering the residual load and setting price at the margin — explaining why the demand-price relationship remains tight rather than being softened by rooftop PV.
The forecast trajectory flags a materially tighter afternoon. AEMO's forward curve shows prices climbing sharply from a benign $79-90/MWh window between 16:00-18:00 AEST (low demand, low-carbon overnight troughs) to extreme levels from late morning: $513/MWh forecast at 17:30 AEST, $480/MWh at 20:00 AEST, and a spike to $531/MWh at 22:00 AEST. These forecasts imply demand will build through the day toward a midday-to-early-afternoon peak, with the combination of rising load and comparatively thin dispatchable headroom (gas plus battery at only 35 MW currently) driving the extreme price forecasts. Weather data shows minimal solar potential (14.6% average) and near-zero wind potential (0.1%) for today, meaning renewable output is likely to fall well short of overnight levels during the forecast peak, reinforcing the gas-price linkage into the afternoon.