Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 12 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$1.08/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1484 MW, firmly negative territory driven by wind generation of 1587 MW covering well over 100% of instantaneous load. Overnight demand troughed near 1261 MW around 02:45-02:50 AEST, coinciding with the session's deepest price excursion to -$85.02/MWh, before climbing through the early morning ramp. Demand peaked at 2087 MW at 08:30 AEST as the morning ramp met minimal solar output (0 MW pre-dawn), with prices touching a brief positive spike of $8.51/MWh at 08:15 AEST — the tightest window of the day so far. Since then demand has eased back through the 1300-1500 MW range as the day progresses, tracking broadly with the negative pricing that has dominated all 288 intervals reviewed.
The relationship between demand and price today is heavily wind-moderated rather than pure load-driven: even at the 2087 MW demand peak, prices barely cleared zero because wind supply is abundant. Price sensitivity to demand increments is muted while wind sits above 1500 MW — each 100 MW of demand movement is producing only cent-level price shifts rather than the sharp curve typically seen in tighter regions. Carbon intensity is tracking at 0.0129 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 97.4%, reflecting this wind-dominant supply mix.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the remainder of today (to 18:00 AEST) shows prices oscillating between -$2.50/MWh and $30.96/MWh, with the highest forecast values clustering around 09:00-12:00 AEST ($28-31/MWh) and again near 11:00 AEST ($29.70/MWh) — periods where wind output is expected to ease relative to midday demand. Afternoon forecasts settle back toward flat pricing (near $0/MWh) from 15:00-17:00 AEST as demand tapers. Traders should note the five identified low-price load windows between 00:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow (13 July), all priced between -$4.25 and -$0.74/MWh with zero carbon intensity readings, offering the cheapest load-shifting opportunities of the outlook period.
On the demand-side and system notices front, AEMO has flagged a Murraylink control outage (constraint I-CTRL