Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 26 August 2026
South Australia is trading at $228.97/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settled interval 20:30 UTC 26 Aug), with demand at 1,555 MW and climbing through the evening peak. This follows a volatile overnight session where prices swung from a low of $49.02/MWh at 10:10 AEST down-cycle to a spike of $254.65/MWh as demand oscillated between 968 MW and 1,555 MW. The current price reflects a sharp run-up from $158.57/MWh at 1,382 MW just two hours earlier — a 44% price increase on only a 12% demand rise, underscoring how tightly the SA market is priced at the margin once gas peaking capacity is engaged. Generation mix at the last interval shows GAS_OCGT contributing 598 MW and GAS_CCGT 472 MW against WIND at 460 MW and SOLAR at zero, with carbon intensity sitting at 0.391 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 32.5%.
The forecast trajectory points to further upside before easing. AEMO's price forecast has the 21:00 and 21:30 AEST intervals lifting to $198–244/MWh, peaking near $251/MWh at 22:00 AEST, consistent with the evening demand peak typically seen 1,700–2,000 MW combined with zero solar contribution after sunset. This is materially above the $130–160/MWh band that held through most of yesterday afternoon when demand sat around 1,400–1,550 MW, confirming SA's price curve is steep in the 1,400–1,800 MW range — each additional 100 MW of demand in this band is pulling in progressively more expensive gas peaking capacity.
Beyond the evening peak, the forecast trajectory falls away sharply: by 23:30 AEST forecast price drops to $45.14/MWh, and by 01:00–06:00 AEST tomorrow (27 Aug) forecast prices sit in single digits ($7.92–17.36/MWh) as overnight demand troughs below 1,000 MW and wind generation firms. This mirrors last night's pattern where demand fell to 968 MW at 03:50 AEST and price held near $227/MWh on constrained dispatch, before easing toward $49–75/MWh once demand dropped further past midnight. Morning demand ramp resumes around 06:00–09:00 AEST with forecast prices climbing back to $126–190/MWh as commercial and industrial load returns, tracking the same demand-price relationship seen in yesterday's 07:00–09:00 AEST ramp where demand rose from 1,521 MW to 2,085 MW and price lifted from $128/MWh to a peak of $172/MWh.
On demand-side risk, AEMO's minimum system load notice flags an elevated risk of insufficient demand in SA on 30 August, with operational demand forecast to fall below the MSL1 threshold of 172 MW between 11:30 and 15:30 AEST that day, potentially reaching -62 MW at 14:00 AEST — a reminder that rooftop solar offset is now large enough to push net demand negative in shoulder periods, a risk not present today but worth flagging for weekly positioning. No demand-side notices are active for today's trading; current price action is being driven by supply-side gas dispatch responding to the evening ramp rather than any constraint or intervention event.