Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 14 July 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,535 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $104.44/MWh — the price has held in a tight $101-108/MWh band through the morning as demand builds toward the day's peak. Overnight demand troughed near 810-850 MW between 04:00-05:00 AEST when prices swung deeply negative (down to -$74/MWh at 04:15), reflecting minimal load against wind and interconnector flows. From that trough, demand climbed sharply through the morning ramp, hitting 2,000+ MW by 08:40 AEST, with price tracking that climb almost linearly from sub-$20/MWh to the low-$100s/MWh range — a clear demonstration of SA's price sensitivity to load once demand crosses roughly the 1,400-1,500 MW threshold, where gas-fired plant (OCGT and CCGT) sets the marginal price.
Today's demand peaked around 2,000-2,020 MW between 08:40-09:20 AEST, coinciding with the sharpest price firmness of the day (~$104-105/MWh sustained). Demand has since eased back toward 1,500 MW through midday and into the current evening approach, with prices correspondingly softening into the $88-107/MWh range through the afternoon, though scattered volatility spikes to $170-260/MWh appeared intermittently between 15:35-19:00 AEST as clouds (99% cover currently) suppressed solar output and gas units picked up the marginal load. Generation mix at 20:00 AEST shows GAS_OCGT (403 MW) and GAS_CCGT (295 MW) dominating, with wind at just 154 MW and solar at zero — consistent with the low 19.05% renewable penetration and 0.4714 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity reading.
The forecast trajectory points to a much sharper evening peak: AEMO's forward curve shows prices climbing from $91-101/MWh in the next few hours to $198/MWh by 06:30-07:00 AEST tomorrow, then surging further to a forecast peak of $291.59/MWh at 11:00 AEST tomorrow — the steepest forecast price point in the current curve. This aligns with tomorrow's weather outlook showing continued low wind potential (0.3) and moderate solar (15.1%), meaning gas plant will again likely set the margin during the morning ramp. Traders should note the neg