Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 17 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $130.44/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 1,483 MW, easing back from this morning's peak. Demand has been highly volatile through the day — climbing sharply from an overnight low of 638 MW (03:55 AEST) to a daytime high above 2,090 MW around 08:20-09:20 AEST, before drifting down through the afternoon. Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced: the 07:00-08:00 AEST ramp saw demand jump from 1,254 MW to over 2,000 MW as prices spiked to $168.70/MWh, and a sharp demand pullback later in the day coincided with a $259.93/MWh spike at 15:25 AEST despite falling demand — pointing to tight supply-side conditions (low wind/solar output) rather than pure demand-driven pressure. Wind generation of 367 MW and gas (CCGT 279 MW, OCGT 196 MW) are currently covering most of the load, with battery output minimal at 10 MW.
Today's demand trajectory reflects winter heating load patterns rather than typical cooling-driven summer peaks — current temperature is 4.4°C with heating demand at 13.6% and negligible solar potential (0%) given 60% cloud cover. AEMO's forecast points to demand easing further into the evening, with forecast RRP dropping to $93/MWh by 23:00 AEST and falling further overnight to sub-$50/MWh territory between 00:00-05:30 AEST as demand troughs. This aligns with our identified low-price windows tonight and into tomorrow morning, notably the 04:00-05:00 AEST window at $34.58/MWh and 05:00-06:00 AEST at $38.20/MWh — both flagged low-risk for load-shifting given minimal renewable output overnight.
Renewable penetration has swung sharply across the day — from 68.6% overnight (00:30 AEST) down to just 5.03% at 08:30 AEST as wind dropped and demand ramped, before recovering to 44.24% currently as wind output rebuilds into the evening. Carbon intensity has tracked this inversely, from 0.18 tCO2/MWh overnight to a peak of 0.54 tCO2/MWh mid-morning, now at 0.31 tCO2/MWh. No demand-side interventions or reserve notices are currently active for SA1; the only