Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 17 July 2026

NSW spot price sits at $123.99/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 8,042 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. The overnight trough saw demand bottom near 8,090-8,270 MW between 02:00-04:00 AEST, with prices correspondingly soft at $63-85/MWh. From there, demand built steadily into the morning peak, cresting at 10,768 MW at 17:45 AEST (07:45 local settlement) alongside prices spiking to $155.58/MWh — the session high — as the market cleared through the 10,000+ MW band.

The demand-price relationship today is tight and consistent with a winter morning peak profile: every 1,000 MW of demand growth from the overnight trough to the morning peak added roughly $50-60/MWh to clearing prices, with the steepest gradient occurring as demand crossed 9,500 MW into 10,000 MW territory around 06:55-07:00 AEST. Demand has since eased back from the peak, tracking down to 7,290-7,700 MW range through the afternoon (10:00-18:00 AEST), with prices settling into a $107-130/MWh band — still elevated relative to overnight lows but well off the morning spike.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a further demand pullback overnight tonight, with forecast prices falling to $42-45/MWh across 22:30-06:00 AEST tomorrow, before rebuilding through tomorrow's morning ramp to a forecast $103/MWh by 08:00 AEST. This evening's demand is running around 7,300-7,900 MW as the current 20:30 interval shows, with price holding at $123.99/MWh — indicating the evening peak is proving stickier than typical shoulder-period softening, likely reflecting the low wind contribution (358 MW) and negligible solar (0.01 MW) at this hour, leaving black coal (5,759 MW) and hydro (940 MW) to cover the bulk of load. No demand-side notices are in effect for NSW today; the active notices relate to interconnector outages (Directlink, Murray-Upper Tumut, Armidale-Dumaresq) that have already been restored to service, removing prior transfer constraints on price formation.