Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 16 July 2026
NSW demand sits at 8,946 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $97.55/MWh, up from an overnight trough near $27.87/MWh at 05:05 recorded during the low-demand window around 8,740 MW. The data shows clear price sensitivity to demand: through yesterday evening's peak, demand climbing from 9,550 MW to 10,501 MW between 06:35 and 07:45 (AEST equivalent) pushed prices from $125/MWh to a spike of $174.59/MWh — roughly a 40% price gain on a 10% demand increase, indicating the region is operating near the steep part of the supply curve during ramp periods.
The demand trajectory today follows a typical winter pattern: overnight minimum around 8,100-8,300 MW between 03:00-05:00, then a sharp morning ramp into the 10,800-11,200 MW range by 08:00-09:30, coinciding with prices holding in the $104-130/MWh band. This morning peak is the most price-sensitive window of the day — small demand shifts of 100-200 MW are moving prices by $5-15/MWh, consistent with thermal plant approaching output limits and gas peaking capacity setting the marginal price. AEMO's forecast curve shows this morning peak persisting into a plateau near $113.50/MWh from 07:30 through 09:30 (target times), before easing back toward $70-100/MWh through the middle of the day as demand eases toward 8,000-8,600 MW in the early afternoon.
Looking ahead, forecast prices for this evening's peak (target 22:00-23:00 AEST period) sit around $96-112/MWh, notably lower than yesterday's actual evening peak of $174.59/MWh, suggesting today's demand trajectory is expected to be less peaky or better supplied. Overnight forecast prices fall to $69.99-72/MWh from 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, aligning with the five low-cost load-shifting windows identified between 00:30-06:00, all priced $63.69-75.23/MWh with zero carbon intensity readings — attractive for flexible load or charging strategies. Current generation mix shows black coal covering 6,605 MW of the 8,946 MW demand, with hydro (1,051 MW) and wind (1,018 MW) providing secondary support; renewable penetration sits at 25.5% with carbon intensity at