Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $127.22/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 8,901 MW. Prices have been volatile overnight into this morning, ranging from a low of $0.01/MWh at 04:05 AEST during minimum demand to a peak of $146/MWh recurring through the 17:00-19:30 AEST evening ramp on 7 July. The current level sits mid-range against that 24-hour band, tracking with rising morning demand as the region moves through its typical weekday ramp.
Generation mix shows black coal dominating supply at 6,641 MW (the largest single contributor), followed by hydro at 999 MW and wind at 776 MW. Solar is contributing 105 MW, reflecting the current early-morning/low-light window, while battery output sits at 130 MW and gas OCGT at just 32 MW, with gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration reads 23.1% at the latest interval, down from an overnight peak of 46% around 01:00 AEST when demand troughed and wind/hydro carried a larger share of a smaller load. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.6755 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4745 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and demand-driven coal dispatch through the morning peak.
AEMO predispatch forecasts show prices easing through the remainder of today's evening interval, dropping toward $74-98/MWh range between 08:00-14:00 AEST (overnight tonight), before a sharp rise tomorrow morning: forecasts show $169.25/MWh by 07:00 AEST and $169.23/MWh by 08:30 AEST on 8 July, consistent with the typical NSW winter morning demand spike. Prices then moderate into the $97-135/MWh band through the afternoon. Traders should note the identified low-price windows overnight — particularly 05:30-06:30 AEST tomorrow at an average $65.20/MWh, saving $104/MWh versus peak, and 02:00-03:00 AEST at $74.06/MWh — as favourable load-shifting opportunities.
Active notices of note include an ongoing credible contingency reclassification for Upper Tumut Units 1-4 (NSW), in place since 3 July following simultaneous unit trips on 17 May that remain under investigation, with no constraint sets currently invoked