Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 6 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $107.33/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1365 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 1170-1220 MW between 02:00-04:00 AEST, where prices held in the $50-60/MWh band — a clear demonstration of Tasmania's price-demand elasticity, with the region swinging from sub-$50 to over $115/MWh (08:00 peak) as demand rose roughly 350 MW. The morning peak between 07:00-08:30 AEST saw demand hit 1527 MW with prices sustaining $104-116/MWh, before easing back through the day to a midday/early-afternoon trough around 1110-1160 MW and prices in the $75-90/MWh range through 14:00-18:00 AEST.
Demand is now rebuilding into the evening peak, up from 1121 MW at 18:00 to 1365 MW at 20:30 AEST, tracking the typical Tasmanian evening ramp. AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a sharp price spike between 21:00-23:00 AEST, with forecast RRP climbing to $124.69/MWh at 22:00 and peaking at $163.99/MWh at 23:00, before falling back to the high-$80s/low-$90s overnight. This evening spike is the key risk window for today — demand is forecast to build alongside cooling load, with current heating demand indicator at 15 (out of the weather dataset) and temperatures down to 3°C, consistent with elevated residential heating draw pushing the system toward tighter reserve margins in that 21:00-23:00 window.
For the remainder of the day beyond the evening peak, AEMO's forward curve shows prices settling back to the $83-90/MWh band through the overnight low-demand period (00:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow), with a brief firming to $103/MWh around 06:30 AEST tomorrow as the next morning ramp begins. No Tasmania-specific reserve or demand-side notices are currently active — the only live reserve notice is an LOR1 forecast for SA on 14 July, unrelated to today's TAS1 conditions. Generation mix remains 100% renewable (hydro-dominant at 1551 MW, wind at 59 MW), so today's price volatility is being driven purely by demand-side load shape and hydro dispatch bidding rather than any fuel-avail