Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 3 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $59.19/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,141 MW and climbing. Overnight demand troughed near 985-1,000 MW between 02:35 and 03:55 AEST, when prices collapsed to $0/MWh and briefly negative as hydro and wind (currently 801 MW and 493 MW respectively, covering demand twice over at 100% renewable supply). The tight correlation between demand and price is evident through the morning ramp: demand climbed from 1,097 MW at 07:00 AEST yesterday-equivalent period to a peak above 1,320 MW by 07:35-08:00 AEST, dragging price up to a session high of $88/MWh in the prior evening peak and $81.98/MWh this morning at 07:00 AEST.
Demand is on a firming trajectory into the day. AEMO's forecast has price climbing steadily from $62.90/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $109.71/MWh by 11:00 AEST, then peaking at $115.28/MWh around 12:00 AEST — Tasmania's typical midday demand plateau combined with tightening regional reserve margins (SA1 LOR2 notices reference reserve requirements near 758-768 MW against available capacity in the 620-745 MW range, though this is a separate region, cross-regional tightness can influence interconnector flows via Basslink/Marinus). Afternoon price stays elevated in the $75-85/MWh band through 13:00-15:00 AEST before easing toward $69/MWh by 18:00 AEST as evening demand softens.
The price-demand relationship in Tasmania today is being amplified by weather: cold conditions (6.8°C, heating demand index 11.2) are supporting a firmer demand floor than typical winter shoulder periods, while wind potential is modest (4.3 currently, forecast average 4.6 today) — meaning hydro dispatch will need to flex harder to match the demand curve. With hydro storage effectively setting the marginal price at the observed $50.10-50.30/MWh clustering across multiple afternoon intervals, that level looks like the near-term floor unless demand drops below ~1,050 MW, at which point pricing has historically fallen toward $0-40/MWh in this dataset. Traders should watch the 11:00-12:00 AEST window for the day's likely price peak, with risk skewed higher if demand t