Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 2 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $0.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1148 MW, near the bottom of a wide overnight range that saw prices swing from -$7.87/MWh to $88.21/MWh over the past 24 hours. Demand has been highly volatile, oscillating between roughly 950 MW and 1372 MW, and price sensitivity to these swings is stark: every push above ~1300 MW during the 07:00-08:00 AEST morning ramp triggered price spikes to $55-88/MWh, while demand troughs below 1000 MW through the afternoon coincided with negative pricing, bottoming at -$7.87/MWh around 17:25 AEST yesterday. Hydro (498 MW) and wind (332 MW) are covering the full 1148 MW load with zero gas dispatch, keeping carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 100%.
The forecast trajectory points to a firming price path through today. AEMO's outlook shows prices holding near flat-to-negative from now through the early morning trough (-$1 to -$4/MWh between 02:00-05:00 AEST), before a sharp lift begins at 06:00 AEST (forecast $10.74/MWh) and 06:30 AEST ($38.46/MWh), reaching a $50.18/MWh plateau by 07:00 AEST that persists through the 11:00 AEST period. This mirrors yesterday's pattern where the 07:00-08:00 AEST demand ramp to 1350+ MW drove the session's highest prices. Traders should expect the morning demand build to again test the 1300-1370 MW band, with price sensitivity elevated in that zone given hydro's marginal cost position and the absence of thermal backup currently online.
On the demand side, no load-shedding or reserve notices are active for TAS1 today, though SA1 carries active LOR2 forecasts for 07:30-11:00 AEST that could indirectly affect Basslink flows if Victorian conditions tighten. AEMO's optimal low-price windows for flexible load are concentrated between 01:00-06:00 AEST, offering savings of $50-54/MWh versus the day's peak — worth flagging to any DR-eligible loads before the 07:00 AEST ramp. The Sheffield-George Town 220kV line reclassification was cancelled overnight (01:18 AEST