Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 5 July 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1,329 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of roughly 1,120 MW recorded around 14:00-15:00 AEST yesterday (04:00-05:00 AEST local trough). The current price of $88.26/MWh reflects this morning ramp, with the region tracking through the steep part of its daily demand curve — demand climbed from 1,239 MW to 1,420 MW between 16:00 and 17:30 AEST in the prior session, dragging price from $41/MWh to over $102/MWh in the same window. This morning's build is following a similar trajectory, with demand up roughly 90 MW in the last 30 minutes alone.
Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced: every 100 MW of incremental demand above the 1,150 MW baseline has historically correlated with $30-50/MWh of price uplift in this data set, particularly once demand pushes past 1,300 MW. The pattern is consistent with hydro dispatch being optimised across the day rather than held at a flat marginal cost — cheap overnight periods (sub-$15/MWh, and negative into the $0.18-2/MWh range between 12:15-13:30 AEST local) give way to the classic morning and evening peaks.
AEMO's forecast curve points to further tightening: forecast RRP climbs to $106.72/MWh by 08:00 AEST before easing slightly, then a second and larger peak builds through the morning business-demand ramp, with forecasts reaching $116-121/MWh between 09:00 and 09:30 AEST tomorrow's equivalent window. Afternoon prices are forecast to hold in the $88-113/MWh band through midday before a modest evening easing toward $74/MWh by 18:00 AEST. Demand-side risk factors are currently limited for Tasmania specifically — no active AEMO interventions or reserve notices apply to TAS1 today (interventions are confined to NSW, SA and VIC), though the earlier lightning-related reclassification of the Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale lines has since been cancelled, removing a transmission constraint that had been in play through the first days of July.
Tasmania's generation mix remains 100% renewable at the latest interval (1,143 MW hydro, 78 MW wind), with zero carbon intensity, so today's price movements are being driven purely by demand