Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 3 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $90.11/MWh at 6:25am AEST, with demand at 7,851 MW. Overnight prices swung widely, from a low near $0/MWh around 3-5am to a peak of $121/MWh just after midnight, before settling into the $50-90/MWh band through the morning ramp. The current price sits above the past 24-hour average (roughly $60/MWh), reflecting the early-morning demand ramp typical for a winter Saturday.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,391 MW, followed by wind at 1,068 MW, hydro at 589 MW, battery output at 88 MW, gas OCGT at 49 MW, and solar at just 25 MW (pre-dawn conditions). Renewable penetration sits at 24.55%, down from a high of 55% overnight when wind generation and low demand combined to lift the renewable share. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.6624 tCO2/MWh, up from lows near 0.39 tCO2/MWh in the early hours — tracking the inverse relationship between overnight wind strength and coal's daytime share as demand builds.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory through the day: prices ease to $42-50/MWh range between 10am-3am tonight, then climb sharply from the 5pm evening ramp, with forecast prices reaching $111-131/MWh between 5pm and 10pm as the evening peak coincides with the current QLD import constraint. The steepest forecast prices cluster around 6pm-10pm ($114.80-$131.47/MWh), consistent with reduced solar contribution and rising residential demand. Today's weather outlook shows moderate solar potential (19.3%) and weak wind potential (1.5%), suggesting renewable output may soften further into the afternoon compared with overnight wind strength.
Two active notices are relevant to today's operations. AEMO has reclassified the Upper Tumut Units 1-4 trip as a credible contingency event, effective from 4pm yesterday until further notice, following an unresolved trip investigation — this affects contingency planning for the Snowy Hydro scheme. Separately, AEMO invoked constraint set I-QN_600 to limit Queensland-to-NSW transfer capacity for power system security reasons, though this was subsequently cancelled after the 10:15am-2:55pm window yesterday. No new inter-