Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $97.67/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 8,446 MW — well below the morning peak of 11,056 MW recorded around 18:55 AEST and the sustained run of $175/MWh prices that held across the 17:00–19:15 AEST window. The 24-hour price average across the history window is approximately $119/MWh, meaning the current interval represents a meaningful easing from the sustained elevated conditions seen through the morning peak and overnight periods. Overnight prices were volatile, with multiple spikes to $165–$175/MWh between 22:00 and 08:30 AEST, punctuated by brief retreats to the $114–$121/MWh range.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is led by black coal at 5,355 MW, followed by wind at 834 MW, hydro at 731 MW, battery discharge at 164 MW, solar at 113 MW, and gas OCGT at 47 MW. GAS_CCGT is producing 0 MW. Total identified generation sits at approximately 7,245 MW against reported demand of 8,446 MW, with the gap accounted for by imports and rooftop solar not captured in the dispatch stack. Renewable contribution (wind, solar, hydro, battery) totals around 1,843 MW, or roughly 25% of dispatch — consistent with the latest carbon data showing renewable penetration at 25.44% and carbon intensity at 0.6547 tCO2/MWh. That intensity figure is elevated relative to the overnight low of 0.5566 tCO2/MWh recorded at 13:00 AEST, reflecting the afternoon and evening fade in wind and solar as demand climbed into the winter evening peak. Today's weather outlook — 87% average cloud cover and modest wind potential of 5.0 — will constrain solar output materially through the day, keeping the mix skewed toward dispatchable sources.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near $97.67/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, then lifting to $121/MWh by 08:30 AEST and $122.87/MWh by 09:30 AEST as the morning demand ramp builds. A notable low-price window is forecast between 13:30 and 14:00 AEST (UTC 02:30–03:00), with predispatch showing $28.65–$29.86/MWh — the cheapest interval in the entire outlook and a clear opportunity for flexible or shiftable load. Prices are forecast to ease through the mid-morning into the $108–$115/MWh range before settling in the $83–$93/MWh band across the afternoon. The evening period from 05:00 AEST onwards is not yet in the predispatch window, but the pattern from overnight suggests upward pressure is likely as demand rises above 9,000 MW again.

On market notices, one inter-regional transfer notice directly touches NSW: the Greenbank 11 275 kV SVC outage in QLD (market notice 144362) invoked constraint set Q-GB_VC, which includes equations with NSW1-QLD1 and the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector on the left-hand side — this constrains