Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 26 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $120/MWh at 06:25 AEST, a notable step down from the sustained elevation seen during today's overnight and morning peak, where prices held at or near $175/MWh for extended periods and briefly touched $221/MWh at 21:30 AEST. The 24-hour rolling picture shows two distinct high-price bands — an evening peak from roughly 07:00–16:00 AEST holding $175/MWh continuously, and a second sustained period in the 17:00–22:30 AEST window — with demand peaking at 10,927 MW before easing to the current 7,959 MW as Sydney's cold Saturday morning settles in. The grid stress score of 80.3 reflects that sustained pressure, even as prices have softened into the current interval.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by black coal at 5,801 MW, hydro at 1,135 MW, and wind at 1,073 MW, with gas OCGT contributing a modest 36 MW. Solar output is effectively zero at 0.01 MW given 91% cloud cover and pre-dawn conditions. Total renewable penetration sits at 27.45%, with renewables contributing 2,209 MW combined across wind, hydro, and negligible solar. Carbon intensity is 0.6374 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight low of 0.5106 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30–10:00 AEST when wind output and renewable penetration peaked above 40%. The weather outlook for today shows a maximum of just 14.6°C under 94% average cloud cover, suppressing solar potential to near zero for the day and keeping heating demand active, which will sustain a firm demand floor through the afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices climbing sharply from current levels. The trajectory rises to $148.68/MWh at 07:00 AEST, escalates to $175/MWh by 07:30 AEST, and spikes to a forecast high of $229.35/MWh at the 17:00 AEST half-hour — consistent with a typical winter morning ramp as heating loads peak. Prices are then forecast to hold around $175–$222/MWh through to 20:00 AEST before gradually stepping down through the $108–$115/MWh range in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The cheapest predispatch windows fall between 11:00–14:00 AEST tomorrow, where prices drop toward $108.65/MWh, offering the best load-shifting opportunity for flexible demand.

Two market notices are relevant for operational planning. The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) remains active following a short-notice rating change on 23 June, constraining the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector and limiting transfer capacity on the VIC–SA–NSW path. Separately, AEMO has two planned MarketNet maintenance windows scheduled — Sydney infrastructure on 6 July and Brisbane infrastructure on 9 July — each with brief 1–3 second service disruptions. Participants with site-to-site VPN connections via the affected node should arrange switchover to the alternate site ahead of each window. No reserve notices or LOR conditions are currently active for NSW.